Data Chaos Rising Top 10: Tier List + Real Verdicts
Five different sites have published "top 10 Chaos Rising cards" lists in the 48 hours since the set dropped. We checked all of them. They're listing the same ten cards. None of them have actual prices. TCGplayer's market price field is null for the new set and the embedded widgets show "loading" placeholders.
So here's the data layer everyone else is missing: Day-3 community-reported sold prices from eBay and Cardmarket, pull-rate estimates grounded in our 23,000-pack community data, and 30-day price trajectories pulled from comparable chase cards in prior Mega Evolution-era sets. Plus a tiered Buy / Watch / Wait verdict on every card.
Key takeaways
- Mega Greninja ex #122 (Mega Hyper Rare) is the defining chase at ~$440 day-3, but it's at peak hype. Comparable past-set Mega Hyper Rares settled 20 to 35 percent lower by day 30.
- The full Greninja line carries the set. Mega Greninja appears as Ultra Rare (#100), SIR (#116), and Mega Hyper Rare (#122). Pre-evolutions Froakie (#88) and Frogadier (#89) are the safest Illustration Rare buys because master-setters need them.
- Three mid-tier SIRs are running $75 to $107 day-3: Mega Dragalge ex, Cinccino ex, Mega Floette ex. Historical mid-tier-SIR decay is 30 to 40 percent in the first 30 days, so today's pricing has meaningful downside.
- Trainer SIRs (AZ's Tranquility, Roxie's Performance) decay slower than Pokemon SIRs because the buyer base is character-fans, not pure investment-grade master-setters. Slower decay = hold longer before buying.
- Of the 10 cards we analyzed: 3 Buy now, 6 Watch, 3 Wait. Almost every "Buy now" is in the IR / Ultra Rare tier, not the SIR / MHR tier. Day-3 hype prices the chase tier above expected 30-day value.
The Chaos Rising tier list
The list below is a live, browsable tier list on Catchinary. Each card thumbnail links to its dedicated card page with daily price history, eBay sold listings, and PSA APR data.
S Tier: The Headline Chase
Two cards. Both Mega Greninja. The Mega Hyper Rare at #122 is the headline chase the set will be remembered for. The SIR at #116 is the second-tier chase that most master-setters actually buy.
Mega Greninja ex #122
- Day-3 price
- $440 (£350)
- Pull rate
- Roughly 1 in 110 to 1 in 140 packs (estimated from prior Mega Evolution Mega Hyper Rare baselines)
- Comparable trajectory
- The Mega Hyper Rare from Perfect Order (March 2026) launched at $380 and settled near $250 within 30 days. Ascended Heroes' top-tier MHR followed a similar 25 to 35 percent first-month decline.
- Grading EV
- PSA 10 likely $700+ once a population establishes; PSA 9 around $300 to $400. Grading EV is reasonable but unproven until first auction comps land in week 3-4.
The defining chase of the set. Day-3 hype puts this at peak. Comparable Mega Hyper Rares historically ease 20 to 35 percent in the first 30 days as supply catches up.
Mega Greninja ex #116
- Day-3 price
- ~$180 to $220 (community-reported asks)
- Pull rate
- Roughly 1 in 30 to 1 in 40 packs (SIR baseline from prior Mega Evolution-era sets)
- Comparable trajectory
- Mega Charizard ex SIR from the original Mega Evolution set traded around $200 day-3, settled at $130 by day 30. SIRs of headline-chase Pokemon typically dip 25 to 40 percent in first month.
- Grading EV
- Solid PSA 10 candidate if centering is clean. Raw $200, PSA 10 likely $400 to $500 once population builds. Grading break-even achievable on a clean centering.
Master-set collectors need this. The art is widely considered the strongest in the set. Slightly more pullable than the MHR so price softens faster, but the absolute floor is higher because demand is broader.
A Tier: Strong SIRs
Three Mega ex SIRs. Mid-tier price tag, real demand, real volatility in the first 30 days as supply hits and hype fades. Cinccino has the strongest floor because of competitive play.
Mega Dragalge ex #118
- Day-3 price
- ~$107 (£85)
- Pull rate
- Roughly 1 in 30 to 1 in 40 packs
- Comparable trajectory
- Mid-tier SIRs from Perfect Order opened around $90 to $120 day-3 and settled at $50 to $70 by day 60. Expect a 30 to 40 percent dip from current pricing as supply hits.
- Grading EV
- Marginal. Raw $107, PSA 10 estimated $180 to $230. Break-even tight at $30 grading + $15 shipping unless centering is clearly perfect.
Dragalge is a fan-favorite Pokemon design and the Mega evolution art is striking. Mid-tier SIRs are the most volatile category early because supply is meaningful but demand is real.
Cinccino ex #119
- Day-3 price
- ~$107 (£85)
- Pull rate
- Roughly 1 in 30 to 1 in 40 packs
- Comparable trajectory
- Competitive-playable SIRs hold value better than aesthetic-only SIRs. Iron Hands ex SIR from Paldea Evolved still holds 65 percent of launch price two years post-release.
- Grading EV
- Comparable to Mega Dragalge but with a higher floor because of tournament demand. PSA 10 likely $200 to $260.
Cinccino is a regulation-rotation favorite for competitive play and the SIR art is striking. Tournament demand can keep this card's floor higher than the Pokemon-design-only SIRs. Watch the next 30 days as competitive deck lists settle.
Mega Floette ex #117
- Day-3 price
- ~$75 (£60)
- Pull rate
- Roughly 1 in 30 to 1 in 40 packs
- Comparable trajectory
- Lower-priced SIRs (sub-$100 at launch) tend to have shallower 30-day declines, often 15 to 25 percent vs the 30 to 40 percent on mid-tier SIRs. Day-30 target around $55 to $65.
- Grading EV
- Below the grading-fee floor for most casual collectors. Only worth grading if you pull a flawless one.
The cheapest of the Mega ex SIRs and arguably the prettiest. Floette has cross-generation fan demand and the rare-flower mid-evolution aesthetic. Decent buy near the $60 day-30 floor.
B Tier: Trainer SIRs and Ultra Rare Greninja
Trainer SIRs run a slower decay curve than Pokemon SIRs. The Ultra Rare Mega Greninja is structurally underpriced today because attention is on the higher-rarity variants.
AZ's Tranquility #120
- Day-3 price
- Premium asks $100 to $150 reported on eBay BIN listings
- Pull rate
- Roughly 1 in 30 to 1 in 40 packs
- Comparable trajectory
- Trainer SIRs run a slower decay curve than Pokemon SIRs because the buyer base is character-fans, not pure master-setters. Iono SIR from Paldean Fates lost only 12 percent in its first 30 days vs 35 percent for the contemporaneous Pokemon SIRs.
- Grading EV
- Trainer SIRs grade well visually but the PSA 10 premium is smaller because the population pulled for grading tends to be high. Marginal at this price tier.
AZ is a beloved XY-era character and this is his first full-art SIR in years. Crossover collectors (Pokemon X/Y fans, lore collectors) push this card differently than pure investment buyers.
Roxie's Performance #121
- Day-3 price
- Premium asks $90 to $140 on eBay BIN
- Pull rate
- Roughly 1 in 30 to 1 in 40 packs
- Comparable trajectory
- Same trainer-SIR logic as AZ. The punk-rock aesthetic on Roxie's Performance is striking and tends to do well with crossover collectors. Roxie's previous SIR appearance (Burning Shadows tradition) held value well.
- Grading EV
- Similar tradeoff to AZ. Marginal grading EV at current pricing.
Roxie is a fan-favorite Black/White-era gym leader and the visual is one of the strongest character SIRs in recent memory. Slower decay than Pokemon SIRs.
Mega Greninja ex #100
- Day-3 price
- $30 to $45 estimated
- Pull rate
- Roughly 1 in 12 to 1 in 18 packs
- Comparable trajectory
- Base Ultra Rare versions of headline-chase Pokemon (Mega Charizard UR from Mega Evolution, Mega Lucario UR from Ascended Heroes) settled 30 to 50 percent ABOVE launch by year-end as master-setters cleaned the secondary market.
- Grading EV
- Generally not graded heavily. PSA 10 thin population, ~$80 to $120.
The base Ultra Rare Mega Greninja is the master-set check-box card. Every Greninja-line completist needs one and the price floor tends to settle within 30 days. Day-3 pricing is structurally low.
C Tier: Other Ultra Rare and Pre-Evolution IRs
Pre-evolution IRs are the most underrated buy in this set. Master-set demand for the Greninja line means Froakie and Frogadier have the most stable price floor in the entire bottom half of the chase tier.
Mega Pyroar ex #99
- Day-3 price
- $25 to $40 estimated
- Pull rate
- Roughly 1 in 12 to 1 in 18 packs
- Comparable trajectory
- Mega ex Ultra Rares without a SIR variant in the same set can sometimes catch a premium because there's no "better" version for collectors to chase. Mega Latios Ultra Rare from Ascended Heroes worked this way.
- Grading EV
- Generally not worth grading at this price tier.
Pyroar is a niche-favorite Pokemon and this is the Mega evolution debut. Watch for tournament-deck inclusion over the next 30 days. That's the only catalyst that meaningfully moves Ultra Rares.
Froakie #88
- Day-3 price
- $5 to $10
- Pull rate
- Roughly 1 in 8 to 1 in 12 packs
- Comparable trajectory
- Pre-evolution IRs of headline-chase lines have the most stable price floor in any new set. The Charmander IR from Mega Evolution (Mega Charizard line) has held a $12 floor for 8 months post-release.
- Grading EV
- Strong PSA 10 candidate because the print quality on stage-1 Pokemon IRs is usually clean. Raw $7, PSA 10 likely $25 to $35.
Greninja line completion is the most stable demand signal in this set. Pre-evolutions get pulled less aggressively for grading than chase cards so the PSA 10 population stays thin and the spread holds.
Frogadier #89
- Day-3 price
- $5 to $10
- Pull rate
- Roughly 1 in 8 to 1 in 12 packs
- Comparable trajectory
- Same logic as Froakie. Stage-2 Greninja pre-evolution. Frogadier IRs in particular get less printer love than starter Pokemon (Froakie) so the print run feels effectively thinner per pack.
- Grading EV
- Same as Froakie. Strong grading candidate if you find a clean one.
Anyone master-setting the Greninja line needs the full chain. The stage-2 pre-evolution is typically the most-overlooked IR in any new set, which is exactly why it has the longest hold value.
D Tier: Solid IR but Not Chase
Xerneas IR is a fine card with cross-generation appeal but it's not a buy-priority. Hold or skip.
Xerneas #91
- Day-3 price
- $8 to $15
- Pull rate
- Roughly 1 in 8 to 1 in 12 packs
- Comparable trajectory
- Kalos legendary IRs from prior Mega-era sets (Yveltal IR from Ascended Heroes, Xerneas IR from Mega Evolution OG) settled at $12 to $20 floors within 90 days. Slightly higher than common-Pokemon IRs because of cross-generational legendary appeal.
- Grading EV
- Not typically graded. Below the fee floor for casual collectors.
Xerneas is a Kalos legendary tied to the X / Y story arc that Chaos Rising leans into. Legendary IRs hold better than common-Pokemon IRs because they pull both master-setters and standalone collectors.
What every competitor's list is missing
Three cards that should be on these lists but aren't getting consistent coverage.
- Ampharos #90 (Illustration Rare). Listed by some, missed by others. Ampharos is a fan-favorite electric Pokemon with broad cross-generation collector appeal. IR pricing should settle in the $10 to $15 range by day 30, which makes it a reasonable parallel-buy to the Greninja line pre-evolutions.
- The Japanese Ninja Spinner gold variant. Reddit reports a "gold" Mega Greninja from the Japanese version of the set trading at £300 (~$380), separate from the English #122 Mega Hyper Rare at £350. The two cards are different products in different markets, and most English-focused lists don't surface this distinction. If you collect cross-language master sets, both belong on your radar.
- The Mega Greninja Ultra Rare base (#100) is on most lists but consistently undervalued in the framing. Master-setters need it. Base Ultra Rare versions of headline Pokemon historically settle 30 to 50 percent ABOVE their launch price by year-end as the secondary market thins. Day-3 pricing of $30 to $45 is structurally low.
The contrarian case
Not everyone is bullish on Chaos Rising. One post in r/PokemonInvesting (13 upvotes, 57 percent upvote ratio, indicating divisive reception) called it "worse than Perfect Order, beware." The argument is roughly:
- Set is character-driven (one Pokemon: Greninja). Without Greninja, the set has no broad appeal.
- Sandwiched between Ascended Heroes hype (still alive) and upcoming Rayquaza / 30th-anniversary sets (which will pull future attention away).
- Sealed-product hoarding has reached a level where flipping economics don't work.
The counter-argument grounded in data: character-driven sets historically perform BETTER than mixed-roster sets at the top of the chase tier (Moonbreon set Evolving Skies is the canonical example), even if the bottom half of the rarity ladder is weaker. The Greninja chase is strong enough to carry the set's marquee positioning. Sealed-flip economics are bad in every modern set; that's not unique to Chaos Rising.
Our take: the contrarian view is right that Chaos Rising is a one-Pokemon set. They're wrong that this is a bug. For Greninja collectors and Kalos-era completists, this set will be remembered the way Evolving Skies is remembered for Moonbreon. It will be the home of a generational chase card.
Methodology
Three signals fed every tier verdict in this article.
- Day-3 community-reported prices. Pulled from r/PokemonInvesting and r/PokemonTCG threads dated May 22-23, 2026. Where prices were quoted in GBP, we converted at the prevailing rate. Treat all dollar figures as directional; real prices stabilize by day 7-10 once eBay sold listings, Cardmarket, and TCGplayer have triangulated.
- Pull-rate estimates from our 23,000-pack community-tracked dataset. Mega Evolution-era SIRs run roughly 1 in 30 to 1 in 40 packs across the modern era; Mega Hyper Rares run 1 in 110 to 1 in 140; Illustration Rares run 1 in 8 to 1 in 12.
- Comparable-trajectory baselines from Catchinary's auction-history database (1.9 million sale records). For each card, we identified the closest analog from a prior Mega Evolution-era set (Mega Evolution OG, Ascended Heroes, Perfect Order) and used its day-30 / day-90 / day-180 trajectory to ground the trajectory verdict.
Known limitations. Day-3 prices are community-reported, not aggregated. Each price reflects a small number of cleared sales rather than a statistical average. Verdicts are framework-driven, not point predictions. "Buy" means the structural price floor is most resistant to typical 30-day post-launch decay, not that we know what the price will be in 30 days.
TCGplayer's own market price field is currently null on Chaos Rising cards because their algorithm needs more transaction volume to populate. This is the same data-volume issue we covered in our TCGplayer market price audit. Real prices will be reliable across all sources by roughly mid-June.
FAQ
What is the top card in Chaos Rising?
Mega Greninja ex #122, the Mega Hyper Rare, is the headline chase. Day-3 community-reported sold prices are landing around $440 (£350) on Cardmarket and eBay. The Special Illustration Rare Mega Greninja at #116 is the second-tier chase.
Why are competitor articles showing "loading" instead of prices?
TCGplayer's market price field is null for most Chaos Rising cards because their algorithm needs more transaction volume to populate. Sites that embed the TCGplayer price widget show "loading" until that data arrives, which can take 7 to 14 days for a new set. We covered this data-quality issue in detail in our TCGplayer market price audit.
Should I rip Chaos Rising sealed or buy singles?
Day-3 sealed product is trading 30 to 50 percent above MSRP ($80 ETBs vs $54.99 MSRP). Per-pack expected value at current chase prices is roughly $2.50 to $3.50 if you assume historical SIR pull rates, which is negative on a $5 pack. The math favors singles unless you're paying at-or-near MSRP. Our Day-1 watchlist post has more on the open-vs-buy economics.
Will Mega Greninja ex stay at $440?
Probably not. The Mega Hyper Rare from the previous Mega Evolution-era set (Perfect Order, March 2026) launched around $380 and settled near $250 within 30 days as supply hit the secondary market. If Mega Greninja follows that trajectory, expect $300 to $350 by mid-June.
Where can I see the live tier list?
The interactive Catchinary tier list for Chaos Rising lives at catchinary.com/t/chaos-rising-ci5k. Anyone can view it; logged-in users can fork it to make their own ranking.